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Saturday, June 6, 2015

NBA Finals Game 1: Analysis and Predictions

 
Written by Dylan Hunter Carter

Game 1 is over and the Golden State Warriors lead the Cleveland Cavaliers 1-0. LeBron James led his Cavs to a 10 point lead in the first quarter with his 12 points. The game seemed to be doomed for Warriors fans with the Cavs playing well on all cylinders; but in usual Warriors fashion, they came back off an energetic run led by the league MVP Stephen Curry and swingman veteran Andre Iguodala. Curry forced the game into overtime where they outscored the Cavaliers 10-2. This series is clearly going to be great as the story develops behind the scenes. 

           All Star point guard Kyrie Irving was diagnosed with a knee fracture which will keep him sidelined for 3-4 months, eliminating him from the finals. Now without any solid defender in his path, Stephen Curry is on track to win his first championship. Matthew Dellavedova, who has shown potential throughout the playoffs, is no match for the reigning MVP’s skill set. Kyrie played strongly against Curry in the first game with 4 Steals and 2 Blocks. After his 4th quarter injury, the Cavs fell apart and gave up the game in overtime. The impact of Irving’s injury to the series is catastrophic for Cleveland Fans, who now look to LeBron James and his supporting cast to make a final push without 2 players of their Big 3. 

           J.R. Smith started the game shooting lights out from 3 Point Range. In the first quarter, Smith shot 2/3 from behind the arc and surged the Cavs into a 10 point lead. From then on, Smith lost his touch as a whole. He shot 1-7 from the second quarter on and totaled 9 points on 13 shots in the game. Smith is seen as an X-Factor in the series due to his obscene shooting skills which disappeared in game 1. It’s no surprise that the Warriors are going to out-shoot the Cavs from deep in the series and Smith was seen as the one player who could counteract the shooting of the Dubs. With his game disappearing, the Cavs championship hopes will plummet.

Smith wasn’t the only player to disappear in Game 1. Draymond Green shots 0-3 from 3 Point range and 4-13 on the night. Green has become a focal point in the Warriors’ play style as the team’s third scoring option behind Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. In order to effectively maintain a grasp on this series, Green needs to step up his game and improve his shooting stroke. Green also struggled to defend against LeBron James, Andre Iguodala, and Harrison Barnes who each played very well. 

           One positive sign for the Cavs was the fantastic play of Timofey Mozgov who they acquired from the Nuggets earlier in the season. Mozgov shot 5-10 and 6-8 from the free throw line and totaled 7 rebounds. He also kept Australian center Andrew Bogut to 4 points on the game. The center has proven himself ready to take on the Warriors in the paint and assume the role of a reliable big man that the Cavs need in the absence of Kevin Love. 

           Andre Iguodala and Harrison Barnes were both on fire, combining for 26 points on 5-8 shooting from 3 Point Range. Iguodala showed a glimpse of his old self with his performance off the bench with fantastic shooting and athletic play. He’s come alive in the playoffs and is clearly looking to win his first ring in his 11 year career. Barnes, who is only in his third year in the league, is an incredibly versatile and important component to the team’s rotation. 

All aspects of the series being considered, I predict that the Warriors will win the series in 6 games and claim their titles as NBA Champions. With the continuing skill of Stephen Curry on display and the lack of efficiency shown by the Cavaliers, it's clear that the Cavs are in need of some changes in the rotation and a bit of luck to maintain a fighting chance in this series. With both teams healthy, the outcome may have been different but the core of the Cavs has been broken and now LeBron needs to pick up the pieces.

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